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Dynamic Sea Level Rise Assessments of the Ability of Natural and Nature-based Features to Mitigate Surge and Nuisance Flooding

Primary Contact(s): trevor.meckley@noaa.gov
This project began in September 2016 and is projected to be completed in August 2020

We are applying coupled hydrodynamic and marsh models to evaluate the potential for natural and nature-based features to mitigate flood risk under multiple scenarios, and to quantify the economic and ecosystem value of these features in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This large-scale research study includes the panhandle of Florida, coastal Alabama, and coastal Mississippi, and the tools developed will provide enhanced detail specific to each region.

Why We Care
Coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico rely on coastal habitat for recreation, economic support, and flood protection. These communities are facing increased flooding risk, accelerated coastal erosion, and loss of vital wetlands and other coastal habitats. These issues threaten coastal infrastructure, commercially important fisheries that depend on inshore waters for adult or nursery habitat, and many other economically important ecosystem services. These issues will get worse with continued sea level rise.

Our assessments will enable decisionmakers, policymakers, and citizens to better understand, assess, and quantify the ability of natural and nature-based features to mitigate surge and nuisance flooding in the context of present and future sea level rise scenarios to make informed decisions that will enhance ecological, societal, and economic conditions in the future.

What We Are Doing
Building on a prior project supported by the Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise (EESLR) program, we will enable stakeholders to assess and quantify the ability of natural and nature-based features to mitigate surge and nuisance flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

An advisory group will identify key focal locations of study, suggest plausible natural and nature-based features to be assessed, and guide product development. The advisory group will be directly involved over the four-year cycle of the project via quarterly webinars and annual workshops to guide the project scope and enhance anticipated outcomes.

Based on initial input, we will present our assessments by Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)–12 to facilitate application to existing Gulf management activities. HUCs are a standardized GIS feature with attributes that will easily support economic and ecosystem services valuation. Further, we will share our results through a NOAA ESRI server, providing web-based data delivery for a single HUC, or region-wide, without specialized software required of the end user.

We will improve an existing hydrodynamic/marsh model (Hydro-MEM) developed through a prior EESLR project, and couple it to economic valuation models. Coupling models to economic and ecosystem valuation models to determine the valuation of natural and nature-based features takes the next important step toward determining the potential of natural and nature-based features in the Gulf of Mexico. Valuation of natural and nature-based features is important to understanding why natural structures are superior to hardened structures in their ability to mitigate flood risk and coastal erosion, while maintaining other benefits of the coast.

Specific science objectives include:

  • Refine, enhance, and extend the coupled dynamic, biogeophysical models of coastal morphology, tide, marsh and surge;
  • Advance the paradigm shift for sea level rise assessments by linking economic impact analysis and ecosystem service valuation directly to the dynamics of sea level rise;
  • Establish and engage an advisory group throughout the entire project; and
  • Deliver results via a flexible, multi-platform mechanism that allows for region-wide or place-based assessments of natural and nature-based features.

This project is led by Louisiana State University, and is funded through the Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise program. Project partners include Louisiana State University, the University of Central Florida, the University of South Carolina,  Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi, and NOAA's Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative.

Additional Resources

Click to expand resource list(s).

Products, Datasets & Reports

Peer-Reviewed Publications

Alizad, K., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, J. T. Morris, L. Balthis and C. A. Buckel. 2018. Dynamic responses and implications to coastal wetlands and the surrounding regions under sea level rise. PLOS ONE 13(10); e0205176. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0205176

Alizad, K., S. C. Medeiros, M. R. Foster-Martinez and S. C. Hagen. 2020. Model sensitivity to topographic uncertainty in meso- and microtidal marshes. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing 13: 807-813, 19424117. DOI: 10.1109/JSTARS.2020.2973490

Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen and J. L. Irish. 2019. Development of Return Period Stillwater Floodplains for the Northern Gulf of Mexico under the Coastal Dynamics of Sea Level Rise. ASCE Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 145(2). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000468

Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen and S. C. Medeiros. 2020. Unstructured finite element mesh decimation for real-time Hurricane storm surge forecasting. Coastal Engineering 156: 103622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.103622

DeLorme, D. E., S. H. Stephens, S. C. Hagen and M. V. Bilskie, 2018. Communicating with Coastal Decision-Makers and Environmental Educators via Sea Level Rise Decision-Support Tools. Journal of Science Communication 17(3). https://doi.org/10.22323/2.17030203

Foster-Martinez, M. R., K. Alizad and S. C. Hagen. 2020. Estimating wave attenuation at the coastal land margin with a GIS toolbox. Environmental Modelling & Software 132: 104788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104788

Foster-Martinez, M. R., K. Alizad and S. C. Hagen. 2020. Wave ATTEnuation Toolbox (WATTE). LSU Digital Commons. Civil Engineering Datasets.  https://doi.org/10.31390/civil_engineering_data.01

Hagen, S. C., D. L. Passeri, M. V. Bilskie, D. E. DeLorme and D. Yoskowitz. 2017. Systems Approaches for Coastal Hazard Assessment and Resilience. In: S. Cutter (Ed): Oxford Research Encyclopedia: Natural Hazard Sciencehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.28

Morris, J. T., J. Lynch, K. A. Renken, S. Stevens, M. Tyrrell and H. Plaisted. 2020. Tidal and Hurricane Impacts on Saltmarshes in the Northeastern Coastal and Barrier Network: Theory and Empirical Results. Estuaries and Coasts 43(7): 1658-1671. Special Issue: Hurricane Sandy Impacts and Responses. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-020-00790-5

Morris, J. T. and K. A. Renken. 2020. Past, present, and future nuisance flooding on the Charleston peninsula. PLOS ONE 15(9): e0238770. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238770

Passeri, Davina L., Matthew Bilskie, Scott C. Hagen, Rangley C. Mickey, P. Soupy Dalyander and Victor M. Gonzalez. 2021. Assessing the Effectiveness of Nourishment in Decadal Barrier Island Morphological Resilience. Water 13(7), 944. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070944

Passeri, D. L., M. V. Bilskie, S. C. Hagen, N. Plant and J. Long. 2018. Dynamic modeling of barrier island response to hurricane storm surge under future sea level rise. Climatic Change 149(3-4): 413–425https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2245-8

Santiago-Collazo, F. L., M. V. Bilskie and S. C. Hagen. 2019. A comprehensive review of compound inundation models in low-gradient coastal watersheds. Environmental Modelling & Software 119: 166-181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.002

Stephens, S., D.E. DeLorme and S.C. Hagen. 2020. Coastal Stakeholders’ Perceptions of Sea Level Rise Adaptation Planning in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental Management 66: 407-418. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01315-3

Tahsin, S., S. C.  Medeiros and A. Singh. 2021. Consistent Long-Term Monthly Coastal Wetland Vegetation Monitoring Using a Virtual Satellite Constellation. Remote Sensing 13(3), 438. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030438

Tahsin, S., S. C. Medeiros and A. Singh. 2019. Wetland Dynamics Inferred from Spectral Analyses of Hydro-Meteorological Signals and Landsat Derived Vegetation Indices. Remote Sensing 12(1), 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12010012

Tahsin, S., S.C. Medeiros and A. Singh. 2018. Assessing the Resilience of Coastal Wetlands to Extreme Hydrologic Events using Vegetation Indices: A Review. Remote Sensing - Special Issue: Remote Sensing in Coastal Zone Monitoring and Management - How Can Remote Sensing Challenge the Broad Spectrum of Temporal and Spatial Scales in Coastal Zone Dynamic?  10(9): 1390. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10091390

Wu, W., P. Biber, D. R. Mishra and S. Ghosh. 2020. Sea-level rise thresholds for stability of salt marshes in a riverine versus a marine dominated estuary. Science of The Total Environment 718; 137181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137181

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