Forecasting and Modeling

Ecological forecasting and modeling are used to predict changes in the environment and the resulting impacts to ecosystems, people, economies, and communities. Forecasting and modeling capabilities allow NOAA to help our nation mitigate the impacts of climate change, promote a vibrant Blue Economy, and protect the public from coastal hazards. NCCOS's world-class scientists integrate geospatial modeling products for end-to-end support of customers in the coastal and ocean management community. These unique capabilities are used by federal, state, and local decision makers to ensure that special places are valued, protected, and preserved, and to assist in growing the economies that are dependent on our nation’s maritime resources.

Forecasting and Modeling by Topic

Advances in Technology Driving Ecological Forecasting

Citizen Science

Mobile phone-based technology is allowing citizens to improve NOAA’s harmful algal bloom (HAB) detection capabilities in the Gulf of Mexico. This effort allows NOAA to increase the frequency and resolution of HAB forecasts, improving the ability to protect the health of beachgoers during Red Tides.

Read more

Uncrewed Systems

The deployment of NOAA’s fleet of gliders and Environmental Sampling Processors is a pivotal component of NOAA’s observation networks, which provide real-time data necessary to model and forecast changing environmental conditions.

Read more


Genomic techniques allow NOAA to detect and predict the the presence of pathogenic bacteria like Vibrio spp. This predictive capability allows NOAA to inform shellfish farming and harvesting processes that ensure seafood safety and sanitation.

Read more

Featured Stories

From Around the Field