Models: Tools for synthesis in international oceanographic research programs

Through its promotion of coordinated international research programs, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) has facilitated major progress on some of the most challenging problems in oceanography. Issues of global significance—such as general ocean circulation, the carbon cycle, the structure and dynamics of ecosystems, and harmful algal blooms—are so large in scope that they require international collaboration to be addressed systematically. International collaborations are even more important when these issues are affected by anthropogenic processes—such as climate change, CO2 enhancement, ocean acidification, pollution, and eutrophication—whose impacts may differ greatly throughout the global ocean. These problems require an entire portfolio of research activities, including global surveys, regional process studies, time-series observations, laboratory-based investigations, and satellite remote sensing. Synthesis of this vast array of results presents its own set of challenges (Hofmann et al., 2010), and models offer an explicit framework for integration of the knowledge gained as well as detailed investigation of the underlying dynamics. Models help us to understand what happened in the past, and to make predictions of future changes—both of which support the development of sound policy and decision making. We review examples of how models have been used for this suite of purposes, focusing on areas where IOC played a key role in organizing and coordinating the research activities.