This long-term study will quantify coastal protection (wave attenuation and flood mitigation), habitat services (fish and benthic infauna communities), and sediment transport (shoreline change) for a low-lying coastal community on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Study results will address knowledge gaps in the physical and ecological performance of living shoreline designs, providing essential information for community planners and resource managers.
Why We Care
The Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay region has one of the highest rates of water level rise in the U.S., due to sea level rise and land subsidence. An estimated 76,000 Maryland residents in the region already live within six feet of the high tide line, and the frequency of coastal flooding events is increasing.
In the region, the Town of Oxford, Maryland, is considered “ground zero” for coastal change impacts from sea level rise. The majority of the town lies in the floodplain and recurring flooding makes roads inaccessible and severely impedes access to homes and services. Oxford has taken action to manage and adapt to inundation risks using natural infrastructure and habitat restoration in conjunction with state and federal partners. By contributing to and learning from these efforts, the project team will build the Eastern Shore’s capacity to plan for and mitigate the impacts of coastal flooding and inundation.
What We Are Doing
In 2017, NCCOS completed a site-specific Vulnerability Assessment for Oxford and Talbot County, identifying socioeconomic, structural, and ecological vulnerabilities to localized coastal hazard impacts. The multi-year assessment confirmed that Oxford’s flooding issues are expected to worsen with changing climate conditions.
Natural and nature-based features (beaches, dunes, islands, wetlands, and reefs) minimize shoreline erosion by damping wave energy and mitigating flooding. The Town of Oxford is committed to using this type of coastal flood protection infrastructure and has already made significant related investments. In 2020, the town received approximately $1.4 million in funding from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation to build “living islands” and incorporate “living shorelines” at several high-priority unprotected sites identified in the town’s Stormwater Management and Shoreline Protection Master Plan. Also, Oxford 2100 develops a plan for adaptive landscape design that incorporates site-specific goals for flood protection. These efforts and the recently passed Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act represent a generational investment in coastal habitat restoration and the strategic use of natural habitats to increase resilience to coastal flooding.
The substantial investment that has been made in Oxford to combat sea level rise, coastal flooding, and stormwater issues provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of these efforts, provide guidance on future planning, and develop a science-based framework that is transferrable to other locations in need. Specifically, the NOAA/NCCOS Oxford Lab and partners will focus efforts in five general areas:
Tidal monitoring and prediction: A tidal and water quality monitoring station was installed at the Oxford Laboratory in 2025 to provide real-time data to the town and Talbot County EMS. Over the next three years, efforts will focus on development of predictive modeling, linking tidal height to observed impacts and reference sites in the town, and the provision of a weather/water dashboard specific for the town and county.
Wave attenuation and sediment transport modeling: Several models are currently being evaluated for the provision of sediment transport and wave attenuation dynamics on a local scale. The end goal of this component is to provide a platform for demonstration of the potential efficacy of future planned projects in combating erosion and encouraging accretion.
Storm water management: Several studies have been commissioned by the town to gain a better understanding of storm water retention patterns. However, there is a need to distill this information in a manner that highlights areas of risk and provides scenarios for potential mitigation.
Nature-Based Infrastructure Performance: While there are a number of nature-based solution projects in the town, little effort has been focused on monitoring their performance. Six sites have been identified for this study (Two constructed barrier island sites, two living shorelines, and two natural beaches) where the following will be monitored:
- Wave attenuation – Sites will be monitored with pressure sensors over a variety of storm and wind conditions to evaluate the effectiveness of nature-based structures for damping wave energy.
- Nature-Based Structures performance and evolution – Drone-based surveys to capture elevation, beach volume, shoreline change, and plant coverage will be conducted to evaluate shoreline stability and vegetation health.
- Fish habitat and benthic ecology – A variety of techniques will be employed to evaluate fish usage and habitat quality of sites with nature-based structures, including eDNA, acoustic sonar, and active and passive sampling using nets. Benthic sampling will be conducted for macroinvertebrate communities.
Social Science: Attitudes and perceptions of flooding as well as usage and acceptance of nature-based structures will be captured through community workshops. The history of shoreline change and how it has affected personal property will be captured through oral histories. Visitation and use of these shorelines will be monitored.
This project is supported by the Town of Oxford through a congressional earmark awarded in 2025. Volunteers from the town will be engaged in every aspect of this project through the Friends of the Cooperative Oxford Lab, and the town is using earmarked funds to hire a grant writer/community liaison to assist in communication and in proposal development based on the science.
Benefits of Our Work
Deliverables will include peer-reviewed publications, annual reports, EMS hazard communication specific to the town, tidal predictions, base models for scenario evaluation, a stormwater risk assessment, a summary report with suggestions for future projects to address specific risks, and a framework for assessing mitigation potential, which can be used in other Eastern Shore communities.
Next Steps
May 2026 – Installation of sensors and initiation of sampling.