A paper supported by the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science project ‘Multiple Stresses in Mid-Atlantic Shoreline Habitats’ won the 2014 American Water Resources Association (AWRA) Boggess Award for the best paper published in the Journal of the AWRA in the prior year.
The paper, “Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary,” compared a suite of models across a variety of watersheds and evaluated their performance in predicting flow, nitrogen and phosphorus discharges to the Patuxent River and the Chesapeake Bay.
The paper found that no one model could best predict across different watersheds and discharges. Combining model predictions into a model average improved overall reliability in matching observations, and the range of predictions helped describe uncertainty. This suggests that ecological forecasting of these complex and variable systems may need ensemble modeling.
For more information, contact Beth Turner.