Home > Explore Data & Reports > Initial skill assessment of the California Harmful Algae Risk Mapping (C-HARM) system

Citation:

Anderson, C.R., R.M. Kudela, M. Kahru, Y. Chao, L.K. Rosenfeld, F.L. Bahr, D.M. Anderson, and T.A. Norris. 2016. Initial skill assessment of the California Harmful Algae Risk Mapping (C-HARM) system. Harmful Algae, 59:43118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2016.08.006

Data/Report Type:

Sponsored Research

Description

Toxic algal events are an annual burden on aquaculture and coastal ecosystems of California. The threat of domoic acid (DA) toxicity to human and wildlife health is the dominant harmful algal bloom (HAB) concern for the region, leading to a strong focus on prediction and mitigation of these blooms and their toxic effects. This paper describes the initial development of the California Harmful Algae Risk Mapping (C-HARM) system that predicts the spatial likelihood of blooms and dangerous levels of DA using a unique blend of numerical models, ecological forecast models of the target group, Pseudo-nitzschia, and satellite ocean color imagery. Data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (DINEOF) are applied to ocean color imagery to fill in missing data and then used in a multivariate mode with other modeled variables to forecast biogeochemical parameters. Daily predictions (nowcast and forecast maps) are run routinely at the Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System (CeNCOOS) and posted on its public website. Skill assessment of model output for the nowcast data is restricted to nearshore pixels that overlap with routine pier monitoring of HABs in California from 2014 to 2015. Model lead times are best correlated with DA measured with solid phase adsorption toxin tracking (SPATT) and marine mammal strandings from DA toxicosis, suggesting long-term benefits of the HAB predictions to decision-making. Over the next three years, the C-HARM application system will be incorporated into the NOAA operational HAB forecasting system and HAB Bulletin.

Note to readers with disabilities: Some scientific publications linked from this website may not conform to Section 508 accessibility standards due to the complexity of the information being presented. If you need assistance accessing this electronic content, please contact the lead/corresponding author, Primary Contact, or nccos.webcontent@noaa.gov.

Explore Similar Data/Reports
NCCOS-with-tag-to-side-bld

NCCOS delivers ecosystem science solutions for stewardship of the nation’s ocean and coastal resources, in direct support of NOS priorities, offices, and customers, and to sustain thriving coastal communities and economies.

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science
1305 East West Highway, Rm 8110
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Phone: (240) 533-0300 / Fax: (301) 713-4353
Email: nccos.webcontent@noaa.gov

    Sign Up for Our Quarterly Newsletter