Chesapeake Bay resources, including the indigenous blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), are facing multiple climate- and weather-related threats. Understanding and predicting how these threats are impacting blue crab resilience and recruitment is critical for tracking and preparing for future changes and risks to this valued resource. We will use integrated data science and machine-learning solutions to provide new insights and models of climate impacts on blue crab recruitment and resilience.
Why We Care
Damage to our coastal environments from increased human activity and climate change continues to impact all living resources, coastal communities, and economies. Threats including shifts and extremes in temperature and precipitation, changing winds, circulation, and storm patterns, and pollution effects have facilitated the need for new modeling tools and information to better understand and predict climate- and weather-related risk. Progressive data science solutions and models are needed for tracking and preparing for future changes to important living resources, habitats, and ecosystems that we protect and conserve.
Estuarine resources, including the native Chesapeake Bay blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) have experienced recent and unexpected declines in abundance, recruitment and resiliency. As a result, Chesapeake Bay management entities have called for specific information on the environmental drivers related to this decline. We will determine how climate-driven extremes interact with, or compound existing risks and impacts on blue crab resiliency. We will determine how processes can be tracked, and how impacts can be predicted and translated into environmental indices that will allow managers to take proactive measures to protect this and other valued resources.
What We Are Doing
To support improved facilitation and transfer of NCCOS research products and information into prediction tools and coastal decision- support applications, we will use climatological data gathered over a relatively large area simultaneously with coastal ocean data and blue crab population data, then apply advanced synoptic machine-learning methods to develop a regional- to local-scale understanding of climate indicators and environmental predictors related to blue crab population changes in the Chesapeake Bay.
Through collaborations with internal and external NCCOS partners, this project will leverage an existing NCCOS-supported modeling framework, and the wealth of existing data from Maryland and Virginia’s winter blue crab dredge and summer trawl survey data, and commercial fishery landings data to develop blue crab population metrics. We will use the wealth of data from coastal ocean, atmospheric reanalysis (reforecasted) products as a framework to assess indicators of predictability of anomalous events linked to success or decline of the blue crab population. Multiple modeled and satellite data products including SST, depth profiled temperature and salinity, ocean currents, sea level pressure, winds, and precipitation will be used throughout the project.
Expected Outcomes
We will provide scientific information and tools using an array of integrated data sets, and weather–water machine-learning solutions. A full suite of interim milestones and end of project deliverables will include:
- Classification Maps (Self-organizing Maps). Historical daily to monthly weather–water types for the Chesapeake Bay and surrounding areas
- Machine-learning Models. Neural Network–based indicator models linking atmospheric forcing predictor variables with aspects of blue crab fishery recruitment and resilience
- Summary Report
- Improved understanding of climate and weather forcing on blue crab fishery recruitment and resiliency in Chesapeake Bay and surrounding systems
- Recommendations for informing Chesapeake Bay stock assessments and NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office State of Ecosystem Reports
- Refereed Journal Article Manuscripts
- Manuscripts on climate and weather linkages to blue crab fishery recruitment and resiliency and indicator models in Chesapeake Bay and surrounding ocean shelf environments
Benefits of Our Work
This project will apply portable science solutions for understanding and predicting climate effects on blue crabs, which can be applied to numerous other valued resources in the bay. New tools and predictions of key conditions developed in this project will improve links to management through implementation of adaptive strategies for measuring and tracking rates and severity of change that can be applied to multiple ecosystem attributes and services.
Management benefits include: improved response to weather risk facilitated by greater understanding of weather risk; more targeted monitoring of “at-risk” and impacted resources in protected areas (e.g., Chesapeake Bay); and improved guidance of cost-effective mitigation strategies for impacted resources. The science solutions and tools from this project will be integrated into existing NOS and academic partner decision-support frameworks in protected areas and academic partner web platforms.