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Vibrio Guidance Models - Chesapeake Bay

Chespeake Bay
Model showing Concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in Chesapeake Bay Oysters

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) in Chesapeake Bay Oysters at Harvest

Vibrio concentrations in Oysters harvested from bottom waters of Chesapeake Bay are related to the temperature and salinity. This product uses the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System to force a statistical model (USFDA 2005) to predict expected concentrations of Vp at the time of harvest. Daily average predictions are provided at 0.2 – 5 km resolution for the mainstem and tributaries for the previous 5 days, current day, and out to 48 hrs in the future.




Model showing Post-Harvest Concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in Chesapeake Bay Oysters

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) in Chesapeake Bay Oysters, Post-Harvest

Once an oyster is harvested, Vp will continue to grow within the organism until it is placed under refrigeration and cooled to 50°F. This model takes the average daily concentration at time of harvest (see above) and calculates additional accumulation of Vp based on air temperature. The model begins at sunrise each day and projects post harvest growth out to 10 hours based on regionally adjusted, 12 KM air temperature predictions.




Model showing the probability of Vibrio vulinificus in the Chesapeake Bay

Vibrio vulnificus (Vv) Occurrence in the Chesapeake Bay Water

Vibrio vulnificus is notable for its ability to cause serious wound infections from water exposure. Predictive models created from large scale sampling efforts in the Chesapeake from 2007-2010 are forced with the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System to provide the probability of occurrence of this potential pathogen throughout the Bay. As with other products, a daily average prediction is provided for the previous 5 days, current day, and 48hrs in advance.




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As a work in progress, current Vibrio models displayed here are considered experimental products, and thus NOAA will not be held liable from issues arising from their interpretation and use.