Rising seas, stronger storms, and other coastal hazards are reshaping shorelines and habitats in dramatic ways. New inlets are forming in some regions. Wetlands are now permanently flooded in others.
A new publication, co-authored by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA, and their partners, outlines a path to improve predictions of these coastline changes.
The publication addresses the need for consistent, national-scale projections of future coastal change. Specifically, the authors emphasize the importance of incorporating an understanding of coastal processes and ecosystem changes into future flood protection and community planning.
A central recommendation is the development of a coordinated framework to support this research integration. The framework would account for relevant drivers of coastal change, include coastal managers’ information needs, and generate meaningful projections. Ultimately, the framework is expected to facilitate better coastal management decisions, including when to take action, how best to invest resources, and how to leverage natural processes.
The research team’s work is authorized by the NOAA Authorization Act of 1992, Pub. L. 102-567 (Oct. 29, 1992); sec. 201(c), which mandates funding for the NCCOS Competitive Research Program to support efforts to improve predictions of coastal hazards to protect human life and personal property.
Citation: Lentz, E. E., Passeri, D. L., Zeigler, S. L., White, K., Wahl, T., Stoltz, A. D., et al. 2026. Challenges and opportunities for national-scale projections of future coastal landscape change. Earth’s Future, 14, e2024EF005833. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005833