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The U.S. government is closed. This site will not be updated; however, NOAA websites and social media channels necessary to protect lives and property will be maintained. To learn more, visit commerce.gov. 

For the latest forecasts and critical weather information, visit weather.gov.

Researchers developed a model that estimates how dunes may grow, or erode, over the next 100 years

A set of three line graphs showing model projections from 2030 to 2120 for different dune growth and sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Graph (a) shows dune crest height (z_crest) over time. Graph (b) shows shoreline position change (ΔX_veg) over time. Graph (c) shows vegetation growth rate (β1) over time. Each line represents a different combination of dune growth rate and sea level rise, with solid lines indicating scenarios with sea level rise and dashed lines showing those without.
 

In coastal communities vulnerable to hurricanes and nor’easters, sand dunes are a crucial first line of defense against flooding and storm waves. Researchers in North Carolina’s Outer Banks developed a model that combines wind, wave, and storm condition data to estimate how dunes may grow, or erode, over the next 100 years. https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/dune-growth-offer-long-term-flood-protection/